Crisil Research has come out with its report on the Indian rupee. According
to the research firm, the rupee value is more sensitive to movements in the
current account, a lower current account deficit in 2012-13 (aided by lower
crude oil prices and dipping gold imports) will help strengthen the rupee.
The ratings agency says there is a 66 per cent chance that the India rupee
will be trading at Rs50 vs. $1 (Rs13.61 vs. Dh1) by March 2013, while the
remaining 33 per cent chances that it will be hovering at Rs55-57 vs. $1
(Rs15-15.5 vs. Dh1) in nine months from now.
“Crisil Research, in the base case scenario, expects the rupee to appreciate to around 50 per dollar by March-end 2013, from the current levels (Rs56.3 per dollar as on June 29, 2012). We assign two-in-three chance to this event,” the agency said.
Here are the five reasons it gives for its analysis of rupee @ 50:
1.The key underlying assumptions, according to the agency, include the initiation of some domestic policy measures to revive growth, no further worsening of its expectation of growth and inflation, and an easing of current account deficit due to softening of crude and commodity prices – all of which could improve investor appetite.
2. The agency also accounts “some improvement in the Eurozone situation in the first quarter of 2013”, which it believes will stimulate return of capital flows into Indian markets.
“Crisil Research, in the base case scenario, expects the rupee to appreciate to around 50 per dollar by March-end 2013, from the current levels (Rs56.3 per dollar as on June 29, 2012). We assign two-in-three chance to this event,” the agency said.
Here are the five reasons it gives for its analysis of rupee @ 50:
1.The key underlying assumptions, according to the agency, include the initiation of some domestic policy measures to revive growth, no further worsening of its expectation of growth and inflation, and an easing of current account deficit due to softening of crude and commodity prices – all of which could improve investor appetite.
2. The agency also accounts “some improvement in the Eurozone situation in the first quarter of 2013”, which it believes will stimulate return of capital flows into Indian markets.
No comments:
Post a Comment